Megamenazas: Las diez tendencias globales que ponen en peligro nuestro futuro y cómo sobrevivir a ellas (Deusto)
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- Author：Nouriel Roubini
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Summary
The bestselling author of CRISIS ECONOMICS argues that we are heading toward the worst economic catastrophe of our lifetimes， unless we can defend against ten terrifying threats。
Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini was nicknamed “Dr。 Doom，” until his prediction of the 2008 housing crisis and Great Recession came true--when it was too late。 Now he is back with a much scarier prediction， one that we ignore at our peril。 There are no fewer than ten overlapping， interconnected threats that are so serious， he calls them Megathreats。 From the worst debt crisis the world has ever seen， to governments pumping out too much money， to borders that are blocked to workers and to many shipments of goods， to the rise of a new superpower competition between China and the U。S。， to climate change that strikes directly at our most populated cities， we are facing not one， not two， but ten causes of disaster。 There is a slight chance we can avoid them， if we come to our senses—but we must act now。
In the 1970s， the U。S。 faced stagflation: high rates of inflation combined with stagnant employment and growth。 Today， we are heading toward a Great Stagflation that will make the 1970s look like a walk in the park。
Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini was nicknamed “Dr。 Doom，” until his prediction of the 2008 housing crisis and Great Recession came true--when it was too late。 Now he is back with a much scarier prediction， one that we ignore at our peril。 There are no fewer than ten overlapping， interconnected threats that are so serious， he calls them Megathreats。 From the worst debt crisis the world has ever seen， to governments pumping out too much money， to borders that are blocked to workers and to many shipments of goods， to the rise of a new superpower competition between China and the U。S。， to climate change that strikes directly at our most populated cities， we are facing not one， not two， but ten causes of disaster。 There is a slight chance we can avoid them， if we come to our senses—but we must act now。
In the 1970s， the U。S。 faced stagflation: high rates of inflation combined with stagnant employment and growth。 Today， we are heading toward a Great Stagflation that will make the 1970s look like a walk in the park。
Reviews
Vivek
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Hooter: An Op-ed converted into a book on key risks that could lead to the next Financial crisisNouriel is racing against time to in a way state the obvious but also consolidate the focus on the types of risk we deal with as a world today that could/would directly impact the financial system。 Whether it is war conflict like Russia-Ukraine， the climate change all over or the probability of recurring pandemics are one side of the story。 He also looks back at anecdotal history with respect to fisca Hooter: An Op-ed converted into a book on key risks that could lead to the next Financial crisisNouriel is racing against time to in a way state the obvious but also consolidate the focus on the types of risk we deal with as a world today that could/would directly impact the financial system。 Whether it is war conflict like Russia-Ukraine， the climate change all over or the probability of recurring pandemics are one side of the story。 He also looks back at anecdotal history with respect to fiscal policies around the world and how cheap debt has always fueled a economic balloon waiting to burst。 He does put in a reality check that stand alone ， each of the risks can be absorbed by society but a combination of them could play havoc with our world。 You'd say stating the obvious Mr。 Doomsday but as an economist， this book articulates his thoughts and perspectives from his experience in this space。 Is there research highlighted in the book for his theories？ Nope！ and hence I like to call this an extended op-ed on what he thinks are items top of his mind that can precipitate the next financial crisis。 The current layoffs in the Tech industry provide an ominous sign to the near future he foretells。 Then again the thing with being consistently pessimistic in a cyclical industry is that you will be right at some point。 。。。more
Jung
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MegaThreats （2022） delves into the ten most pressing potential threats to humanity’s future。 The author examines the evidence and potential consequences for each threat， questioning whether we are doing enough to prevent or prepare for them。Nouriel Roubini is a professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business and the founder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics。 He has served in the White House and the U。S。 Treasury。 He lives in New York City。---Recognize today’s most MegaThreats （2022） delves into the ten most pressing potential threats to humanity’s future。 The author examines the evidence and potential consequences for each threat， questioning whether we are doing enough to prevent or prepare for them。Nouriel Roubini is a professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business and the founder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics。 He has served in the White House and the U。S。 Treasury。 He lives in New York City。---Recognize today’s most serious global threats and the dangers that lie ahead。Life is full of risks。 From saying， “I do，” to placing your last 50 bucks all on red – or from changing lanes on the highway to dropping an extra chili into the recipe。 Many people are risk-averse， and believe it’s wisest to stay in their comfort zones。 But here’s the thing about risks: we get better at dealing with them with each one we take。 And with the state of things now， it’s no better time than the present to prepare for bigger and bigger risks。Today’s biggest threats go beyond traditional geopolitical rivalries。 We face inflation， which can decimate savings; debt， which causes economic hardship; trade wars， which result in job losses; and climate change， which has the potential to devastate living conditions。 According to author Nouriel Roubini， ignoring these issues will turn them into Megathreats – overlapping， interconnected risks that could destroy civilization。 Pretty serious， huh？ Well， they don’t call him “Doctor Doom” for nothing。Roubini is clear: as global citizens， we must be aware of the risks and ramifications of these conditions。 So how can we survive them？ By taking action now。 Time won’t help us face the Megathreats。 But despite their dangers， Megathreats provide opportunities。 They might force us to innovate， create new ways of doing things， and unite as a global society。 But only if we shift our risk perception and recognize what is happening。 So， there’s no time to waste– let’s get started。 In this book， we’ll discuss some of the worst Megathreats and why they occur。---The world is in the grip of a debt supercycle。Are you ready for some more bad news？ We are already in the midst of the worst debt crisis in recent history。 Global debt exceeds $250 trillion， and central banks are routinely rescuing financially strapped countries。 Yes， Global economic growth is starting to wheeze。 So how on earth did we get so out of control？Well， Governments tend to rely on outdated， irresponsible economic options， resulting in unforeseen and obscene debt levels。 The United States is far more in debt today than it was， say， during the Great Depression。 A recession did not have the same impact on growth back then。 Today， it’s a different story。 National debt soars annually due to quantitative easing and other monetary policies that rely heavily on the government issuing more debt。 It seems policymakers prefer reckless spending to fiscal discipline; governments are addicted to debt while ignoring the long-term consequences。Likewise， we average folk are pretty much the same。 We are also addicted to risk。 We take on loans， credit cards， and payment plans and ignore the worst-case scenario。 Roubini says wealthy countries with abundant resources have allowed risk to run wild。 Regrettably， leaders and policymakers remain resistant to progressive change。 And it’s not just the West。 Increased risk of debt default in developed countries results in higher borrowing costs and a reduced willingness to lend。 As a result， developing economies that were already struggling face an even greater challenge in the years ahead。 Each Megathreat seems driven by risk-taking and focusing on the short-term。In recent years， private debt has raced ahead of public debt， reaching new highs。 So now， both public and private debt threaten economic stability。 Furthermore， since the economies of so many countries are connected， the problem is getting worse。 When there is a financial shock in one region， it can quickly affect other areas。 So the likelihood of a global debt crisis shoots up。 As governments worldwide try to fix their economies， central banks react by loosening monetary policy to boost growth。 But arghh， they’ve made money too cheap for too long。 The result？ A terrifying boom-and-bust cycle， similar to stagflation in the 1970s。 In other words， high inflation and the possibility of a recession are happening at the same time。 The difference between now and the 1970s is that governments are stuck in a rut。 They keep making the same mistakes over and over again。Topping this off， global income growth is slowing as countries， corporations， banks， and households owe more than they can repay。 All of these issues spell disaster。 A more progressive world requires more manageable debt levels。---Expect technological disruptions。It’s the stuff of science fiction movies: a world where machines are so sophisticated they can do our work for us， freeing us to pursue more leisurely activities。 Yet， as artificial intelligence （AI） leaders caution， this future may be closer than we think。 Indeed， AI-powered automation is already on the rise， and machines are expected to take over a growing proportion of professions in the coming years。In fact， AI could eventually render entire professions obsolete， displacing some people while benefiting the richest few。 Roubini is sure we are entering a new era of economic and social disruption that has wide-reaching implications for us all。 He is not alone in this。 Many industries are already aware that AI can perform tasks better than humans。More and more of our traditional jobs are being replaced by machines that can do them better， faster， and cheaper。 So what does this mean for the future of employment？ Roubini warns of long-term job displacement and inequality。 He says automation will most benefit those who can afford to invest in new systems。 As a result， the wealth gap will widen all the more。 Sorry， but all signs point to AI-driven pay cuts。One of the founders of DeepMind， Mustafa Suleyman， says that the jobs that are most likely to vanish are the ones that have narrow， simple tasks。 And we are not just talking about robots replacing factory workers。 Soon， it’ll be hard to tell the difference between the text， images， and sounds made by AI and those made by humans。 As a result， many white-collar jobs demanding high skill levels will become obsolete。So what should we do？ Well， we could start training for occupations that will be more difficult for machines to replace， such as working in child care， plumbing， or electrical work。 Alternatively， we could sit back and hope the next generation is generous enough to give us all a universal basic income so we can lounge around and watch Netflix all day。 Either way， it’s going to be a bumpy ride。To avoid the severe impacts of AI displacement， we must begin planning and managing these changes before they become too drastic。 Given these alarming forecasts， governments and organizations need to start preparing themselves。---Climate change will cause political， economic， and social turmoil。t’s not just about the money， folks。 Take climate change， for example。 As the world heats up， nations are struggling to keep their cool。 The global population is increasing， but the water supply is shrinking。 Planting seasons are becoming less predictable due to more frequent dry spells and floods。 As a result， the land becomes barren， and agriculture becomes untrustworthy。 The megathreat of climate change is already upon us。 And it’s likely to get worse。Changes in long-term temperature and weather patterns will cause mass migration。 Dealing with the largest influx of refugees puts massive pressure on Europe。 Climate change has created the perfect storm of political， economic， and social upheaval。 So far， the response has been woefully inadequate， and the situation will only worsen。 If we don’t take action to mitigate the effects of climate change， the cost of adaptation will be astronomical。 Developing countries get hit the hardest because they lack the resources to deal with climate change independently。 We must tax carbon and cease subsidizing fossil fuels， but market-based remedies alone will not address the problem。Pandemics become more probable as the environment declines。 In recent years， there has been a rise in lethal infections such as SARS， avian flu， swine flu， Ebola， and of course， COVID-19。 While various causes may contribute to the spread of these diseases， one theory claims that global warming is to blame。 According to Harvard’s Center for Climate， Health， and the Global Environment， climate change causes animal habitats to collapse， creating ideal conditions for transmitting diseases from animals to humans。If left unchecked， climate change will cause irreversible damage to our environment， economy， and way of life。 That is why we must take action now。 But unfortunately， governments are not investing enough in green and renewable energy to keep us safe。 Instead， they are dozing at the wheel and driving us off a cliff。---Aging populations strain government budgets。You own a company， and it’s experiencing tough times。 You need to make some quick decisions to stay on top。 One of those choices is to cut the workforce to keep costs down。 Sounds sensible， but there is a knock-on effect。 For starters， a company can only reduce its workforce so much before it starts to impact productivity and quality of service。 Second， it strains the remaining employees， who are expected to do more with less。 Lastly， laid-off workers spend less， reducing demand， which can lead to more layoffs。Does this strike you as a Megathreat？ Maybe not for the average business。 Nevertheless， many workers in advanced economies are approaching retirement age。 Great for those looking forward to some well-deserved rest。 Not so much for the economy’s future。 It doesn’t take a crystal ball to see that losing the workforce in peaked economies won’t help。You see， the aging population is putting a strain on government budgets。 As more baby boomers retire， fewer young workers replace them。 This demographic shift results in an increasing number of adults relying on government benefits。 While these programs are essential for supporting retirees， they are rapidly becoming unaffordable。 As more workers become eligible for the safety net， the cash required to fund it grows。 Even affluent nations face mounting pressure to fulfill long-term health-care and pension obligations。 According to a recent Citigroup report， the wealthiest countries have unfunded or underfunded pension liabilities of $78 trillion。 The economy will stall as taxes rise and social programs are cut。So what’s a government to do？ Fire up our old friend Quantitative Easing？ A tempting solution but one that will lead to more debt。 Whatever happens， all plans to cut debts involve breaking promises made to powerful interest groups。 This should not deter us from creative thinking。Economists like Dani Rodrik argue that the effects of an aging population can be mitigated by encouraging immigration。 He argues that wealthy nations should embrace free trade instead of populism。 Such ideas run counter to the current mood in the West。 Despite the difficulties we face， there are solutions。 We must， however， be realistic about our challenges and accept that not every solution will be popular。 The consequences will be far worse if we don’t act now。---Central banks need reform。People often think of the economy as a complicated machine。 It might be more helpful to think of it as a human body。 The central bank is the brain， making sure everything runs properly。 The commercial banks， which pump money through the veins， would be the heart。 The businesses and customers who fuel growth are the muscles。 If one of these parts fails， it will cause problems。 Brain damage is potentially fatal。In recent years central banks have taken on additional roles and responsibilities in response to economic conditions。 As we have discussed， they have flooded advanced economies with unprecedented liquidity through quantitative easing。 Unfortunately， this policy has had mixed results: while it has helped spur economic growth， it has raised concerns about asset bubbles。 Critics believe central banks are abandoning their monetary stability mandate， while supporters argue that they are simply responding to changing conditions。Foreign and domestic security policies are also a major headache for central banks。 Likewise， as the United States continues to pile on debt， there is growing concern that foreign countries will stop accepting the dollar as a store of value。 The People’s Bank of China appears ready to replace the dollar with its own currency。 To keep the dollar as the world’s reserve， the United States must maintain a level head。 If they don’t， the Western economy will likely collapse again， with little to save it。One thing seems certain: central banks need major reform。 Their technological systems are outdated， and their policies create inequality。 However， there is a hint of evolution as they consider their most dramatic innovation， a central bank digital currency。 But positive change comes with significant risk—decoupling to a digital currency could still cause collapse。 Whatever decisions the central banks make， we know the status quo isn’t working。---Climate change， zoonotic diseases， technological disruption， population decline， inequality， and debt—the list of challenges we face is daunting。 Can we stop these Megathreats？ Roubini says no。 However， we sent a man to the moon， eradicated polio， and created the Internet。 So， what is preventing us from dealing with these dangers？Part of the problem is that our current systems aren’t designed to incentivize long-term thinking。 Instead， we are overly concerned with the short-term and frequently make decisions based on incomplete， biased information。 If we can overcome these obstacles， there may be a way out。 We have come a long way in the last 75 years， but if we don’t start working together， we could lose everything。 Megathreats require mega solutions。 。。。more
Ms
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Harrowing， but an important read for any living human being。
Kirt
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I read the blinkist abridgement。
Shannon
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This review has been hidden because it contains spoilers。 To view it， click here。 KSKS
Ietrio
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cheap threats， fallacious arguments， a shallow understanding of economy， but， as any circus act， it works as long as the performer finds the right niche。
Jim Karapilafis
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First of all， Lesbos is not a Turkish island but Greek， and I hope the rest of the book is based on more accurate information。 Overall， I enjoyed reading Megathreats， and I recommend it to everyone who wants a summary of what is going on and what might come in the following years。
Vineet Tandon
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Nothing but an unending and unbearable rant without any structure。 Throughout Roubini laments that CB’s and Governments have not paid any heed to his concerns and cautions 。 Read this book to find out why - that’s the only purpose this book serves， while completely wasting time ！！！
あしずり アート
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Why climate change， extreme inequality， etc matter: explained by an economist in ways that even those in the wealthiest top 1% can understand。 Though， as the saying goes， "you can lead a horse to water but you cannot make it drink。" Why climate change， extreme inequality， etc matter: explained by an economist in ways that even those in the wealthiest top 1% can understand。 Though， as the saying goes， "you can lead a horse to water but you cannot make it drink。" 。。。more
Eric Miller
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This is serious stuff。 I'd hate to wake up one day and think "why didn't I read that？" This is serious stuff。 I'd hate to wake up one day and think "why didn't I read that？" 。。。more
Nat
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Nothing we don't already know but nicely summed up although sometimes a bit repetitive。 Nothing we don't already know but nicely summed up although sometimes a bit repetitive。 。。。more
Ben
，
There is some truth in this book， but it comes from an extremely Malthusian perspective。 There are several areas that are taken as given and ‘settled’， when they are anything but。 There is a very immature writing style that feels like undergrad essays i’ve read in the past。 Pages and pages of chronologies and examples listed without framing， insight and sometimes seemingly without any reason at all; nobody needs this anymore， we all have the internet。 What we need is the editorial; the perspecti There is some truth in this book， but it comes from an extremely Malthusian perspective。 There are several areas that are taken as given and ‘settled’， when they are anything but。 There is a very immature writing style that feels like undergrad essays i’ve read in the past。 Pages and pages of chronologies and examples listed without framing， insight and sometimes seemingly without any reason at all; nobody needs this anymore， we all have the internet。 What we need is the editorial; the perspectives that no one else can provide， and there is very little of that in Megathreats， unfortunately。 There are passages where Roubini is happy mentioning his correct past predictions。 These make him come across as if he has a chip on his shoulder whilst also lowering the tone of the book。I expected something more elevated， engaging and academic。 Roubini is a poor writer and a second rate thinker， at least in this book。 However， there may be some utility if you’re after some basic grounding in concepts like debt， geopolitics and currencies。 。。。more
Tara
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Interesting and highly probable series of events that will change society for decades to come。 I will be following to see which predictions come true。。 and fearful they all will。
Niklas Laninge
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Clever package， questionable research。 A bit long。
Greg Palmer
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Nothing earth shattering in this， could have been condensed down to a tightly written essay vs。 275+ pages。 He's 50/50 on his historical picks， but has made a few very solid calls-usually very early-so it was worth the time Nothing earth shattering in this， could have been condensed down to a tightly written essay vs。 275+ pages。 He's 50/50 on his historical picks， but has made a few very solid calls-usually very early-so it was worth the time 。。。more
Andrew Eil
，
Ideas are compelling， fresh -- and terrifying。 However the book seems to be a bit hastily composed and some chapters seem to have a bit of filler。 I'd have appreciated an approach that dug deeper into solutions， root causes， etc。 rather than simply narrative， which is a bit starchy。 Ideas are compelling， fresh -- and terrifying。 However the book seems to be a bit hastily composed and some chapters seem to have a bit of filler。 I'd have appreciated an approach that dug deeper into solutions， root causes， etc。 rather than simply narrative， which is a bit starchy。 。。。more
Claire Osgood
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Very enlightening non fiction offering from an economist who has lived in several countries。 Therefore his views reflect a more global view of the burgeoning world challenge。 Great read。
Kiona Meade
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Interesting thoughts and take。 Does it worry me a bit？ Yes。 But I am still hopeful that we can avoid some of the major megathreats。
Anton
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WordyThe topic is off course excessively interesting， but the wiring is not very strong。 He meanders， and takes a long time to make the same point。
Vanya Prodanova
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Ох， леле， разбирам защо го наричат Doctor Doom， но е и прав， че е по-скоро Doctor Realist， защото всяко едно от нещата， които спомена като потенциална мега заплаха за човечеството， е напълно логична， разумна и началото на повечето от тях са налице。Аз съм песимист по душа и много пъти се е случвало като общувам с хора， да ми се цупят， че съм твърде черногледа。 Е， дори аз с моето развинтено въображение， не мога да се сравнявам с Nouriel Roubini。 Книгата е трудно да я оставиш， независимо， че е икон Ох， леле， разбирам защо го наричат Doctor Doom， но е и прав， че е по-скоро Doctor Realist， защото всяко едно от нещата， които спомена като потенциална мега заплаха за човечеството， е напълно логична， разумна и началото на повечето от тях са налице。Аз съм песимист по душа и много пъти се е случвало като общувам с хора， да ми се цупят， че съм твърде черногледа。 Е， дори аз с моето развинтено въображение， не мога да се сравнявам с Nouriel Roubini。 Книгата е трудно да я оставиш， независимо， че е икономическа книга， просто е твърде интересна， но на моменти ми се налагаше да спра да слушам， защото усещах， че започвам да изпадам в паника от всичко， което обрисува и излага。 Тъжният факт е， че е прав， нещата няма да станат по-добре за нас и трябва да се подготвим за много лоши сценарии。 А， истината е， че обикновените хора няма какво да направят， за да се подготвят за подобен тип ситуации， а и повечето хора предпочитат да живеят в блажено невежество， за което завиждам， няма да лъжа。Днес видях в новините， че британското правителство премахва Ring-Fencing Regime， който беше поставен след финансовата криза от 2008 година， с цел да се защитят парите на обикновените хора и банките да рискуват собствените си пари， а не парите на хората。 Премахват го и това ясно дава индикация， че няма правителство или управляващ режим в целия свят， който да му пука за хората， освен за собствените им дълбоки джобове。 Та， това е просто малък пример как всъщност Roubini е прав в много аспекти， че не изглежда позитивно бъдещето ни， тъй като всички се борим за ресурси и то не колкото да имаме， за да живеем добре， а просто да имаме колкото се може повече， ей така。。。 за спорта。Книгата наистина си струва да се изслуша/прочете， особено ако човек не живее в България。 България трудно изпада в каквито и да е негативни финансови ситуации， тъй като банките ни са вече вампири и като цяло страната е в доста тъжно финансово състояние， но пак е добре човек да има на идея на къде духа световният вятър， защото миналото е доказало， че няма спасение и за нас ако станат военни конфликти。 :/Унищожих си празниците като я изслушах тази книга， но човек е по-добре да знае， отколкото да се чуди в един момент от къде му е дошло всичко。 :） 。。。more
Frank Lindt
，
There is a flood of information in this book that fails to become real concrete。 The first chapters are stronger as they fall in Roubini’s field of expertise。 The latter ones read more like investigative journalism rather than a well structured argument。
Roland M
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I found chapter 6 to 9 really interresting。
David Ryan
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'There is no gravitational limit to human behavior' 。。。 to paraphrase Roubini， I think captures the essence of the book to me。 Ten significant systemic mega threats unleashed by humans that humans can mitigate， adapt to， or solve if only we knew how to get along。Pick a threat; - Climate Change unleashing massive dislocations and forced migrations， - the Thucydides Trap of the world's superpower feeling threatened by China， - AI & Robotics creating millions if not billions of "surplus" humans， - 'There is no gravitational limit to human behavior' 。。。 to paraphrase Roubini， I think captures the essence of the book to me。 Ten significant systemic mega threats unleashed by humans that humans can mitigate， adapt to， or solve if only we knew how to get along。Pick a threat; - Climate Change unleashing massive dislocations and forced migrations， - the Thucydides Trap of the world's superpower feeling threatened by China， - AI & Robotics creating millions if not billions of "surplus" humans， - the rapid growth of viral epidemics in the last 60 years， - unsustainably massive explicit （official） plus implicit （think pensions and insurance promises） debts （22x official debt） and financial instability， - rapidly aging populations， - deglobalization is a long-term driver of inflation and slower growth， - and slow growth + massive inequality fuels populism， which in turn fuels nativism， which in turn is the catnip for authoritarianism and totalitarianism。Solutions are scarce and given our domestic and global politics 。。。 aspirational- Leverage legal migration for faster economic growth （55% of $1B start-ups in the USA are founded by immigrants）- rapidly advance technologies such as fusion reactors for energy generation- embrace global cooperation as no one country can address any one threat （let alone ten） aloneAs Roubini concludes and as Kristalina Georgieva （IMF Managing Director） recently said "Buckle Up" 。。。 this is going to be a bumpy ride through a very dark night。 。。。more
Matthew Christopher
，
It's capitalist nonsense， but since capitalism is clearly hell-bent on destroying the world， it's a good enough description of how capitalism will destroy us all。 It's capitalist nonsense， but since capitalism is clearly hell-bent on destroying the world， it's a good enough description of how capitalism will destroy us all。 。。。more
Brannen
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Lite weight / not numerical / filled with platitudes worthy of a tarot card reader （no disrespect to tarot card readers） / seems like a hastily written book for the purpose of time stamping prediction of a calamity to credentialize themselves on the talking head circuit / I’d skip it unless you don’t read the news
Li Li
，
Excellent book with a provocative but realistic prediction with tons of reliable data and common sense to back it up。 But I feel that the author is a bit biased toward cryptocurrency and AI。 Well， I am too， biased。
Nawasandi
，